Barchart.com provides an easy way to chart COT data along with a particular futures price chart. The chart below shows the Daily Continuous Euro FX futures contract with a Commitment of Traders Line Chart indicator added. The COT data is not displayed as a percentage of the number of traders short or long, but rather as the number of contracts that are short or long.
Large speculators (green line) trade for profit and are trend followers. Commercials (red line) use futures markets to hedge, and, therefore, are counter-trend traders. Focus on large speculators; while these traders have deep pockets they can’t withstand staying in losing trades for long. When too many speculators are on the same side of the market, there is a high probability of a reversal.
Over the time period shown, when large speculators were short about 200,000 contracts, at least a short-term rally soon followed. This is not a definitive or “time-less” extreme level and may change over time.
Another way to use the COT data is to look for cross-overs. When large speculators move from a net short position to a net long position (or vice versa), it confirms the current trend and indicates there is still more room to move.
While the cross-over method is prone to provide some false signals, over the years several large moves were captured using the method. When speculators move from net short to net long, look for the price of the euro futures, and by extension the EUR/USD, to appreciate. When speculators move from net long to net short, look for the price of the futures and related currency pairs to depreciate.