Sentiment Analysis

The main benefit of using forex sentiment analysis is that a trader can get a better overall understanding of what the majority of market participants are feeling about a market by looking at their trade positioning. Understanding what the majority of the ‘crowd’ is doing or feeling will likely influence the price direction of a…

Some of the most popular and useful sentiment analysis indicators and reports include futures open interest, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, and brokers’ position summaries. Let’s first discuss futures open interest. Futures open interest is used to indicate the number of active contracts (positions) that are currently open on any particular futures market and…

Forex sentiment analysis is the study of market participants’ attitudes and expectations towards a particular currency pair by analysing certain sentiment indicators and reports. These indicators and reports offer valuable information into the overall positioning of traders in the currency market. Simply put, the main goal of market sentiment analysis is to figure out what…

To provide transparency to the over-the-counter forex market, many forex brokers publish the aggregate percentage of traders or trades that are currently long or short in a particular currency pair. The data is only gathered from clients of that broker, and therefore provides a microcosmic view of market sentiment. The sentiment reading published by one broker may or may not…

The following table shows how open interest is typically interpreted for a futures contract. Futures Price Open Interest Interpretation Rising Rising Strong/strengthening Rising Falling Weakening Falling Rising Weak/weakening Falling Falling Strengthening The data then must be applied to the forex market. For example, strength in euro futures (US dollar weakness) will likely keep pushing the…

The forex market is “over-the-counter” with independent brokers and traders all over the world creating a non-centralized marketplace. While some brokers publish the volume produced by their client orders, it does not compare to the volume or open interest data available from a centralized exchange, such as a futures exchange. Statistics are available for all futures contracts traded,…

Barchart.com provides an easy way to chart COT data along with a particular futures price chart. The chart below shows the Daily Continuous Euro FX futures contract with a Commitment of Traders Line Chart indicator added. The COT data is not displayed as a percentage of the number of traders short or long, but rather as the number…

A popular tool used by futures traders to get a sense of sentiment is also applicable to spot forex traders. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is released every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The data is based on positions held as of the preceding Tuesday, which means the data is not real-time, but it’s still…

Sentiment indicators show the percentage, or raw data, of how many trades or traders have taken a particular position in a currency pair. For example, assume there are 100 traders trading a currency pair; if 60 of them are long and 40 are short, then 60% of traders are long on the currency pair. When the…

According to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), there are, on average, almost $6 trillion of forex transactions on a daily basis.1 With so many participants—most of whom are trading for speculative reasons—gaining an edge in the forex market is crucial. Fundamental analysis provides a broad view of a currency pair’s movements and technical analysis defines trends and helps to isolate turning…